Climate Report.

Today is Tuesday 28th November 2023. CO2 emissions, measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii by the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML), averaged 418.82 ppm in October, compared to 415.74 ppm in October of 2022. This was an increase of 3.08 ppm, or ~0.741% p.a.

In terms of daily figures, the GML records show that, from the 15th-24th of this month, the level of atmospheric CO2 has not fallen below 420 ppm, and has not fallen below 419 ppm since the 3rd of this month. It was 418.84 ppm on the 1st, and 418.98 ppm on the 2nd. The average for the 15th-24th is 421.6 ppm, with a maximum of 422.43 ppm on the 17th and a minimum of 420.61 ppm on the 21st.

The latest GML monthly figure for methane is for July of this year, which shows a figure of 1,915.25 ppb (= 1.91525 ppm), compared to 1,904.42 ppb (= 1.90442 ppm) for July 2022. This is an increase of 10.83 ppb, or ~0.57% p.a.

The latest Keeling Curve figure for CO2 is for yesterday, the 27th November, and is 421.23 ppm. There were no figures available for the 26th and 27th from CO2 Earth.

Anyone thinking that CO2 levels of 420 ppm are nothing to worry about should look at the graph of CO2 over the last 70 million years provided by the University of California at San Diego (UCSD) Scripps' Institute of Oceanography. They will see the current level matches that of the mid-Pliocene, some 3 million years ago. This was a time known as the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP), named after the rock formations found near the Northern Italian city of Piacenza. Such people should also read the article in Nature in 2020 by de la Vega et al, which describes the climatic conditions prevailing then.

Do we really want global warming of 3°C, and mean global sea levels 20 metres higher than they are now? The consequences would be catastrophic! The only things preventing that are the aerosols polluting our atmosphere, due to be removed by clean-air legislation, as Hansen, Kharecha and Sato (2013) pointed out.

Btw, my paper on the EarthArXiv, cited above, has now been accepted by the Journal of Modern and Applied Physics, and will be published in its December issue. I hope the EarthArXiv will catch on, and that Google and Google Scholar will, too!

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