The Liberal Democrat Strategy for Winning the Mid-Bedfordshire By-Election.

The former Conservative MP for the seat, Nadine Dorries, having finally resigned from the House of Commons on the 29th August - despite originally announcing her resignation on the 9th June - the by-election in the constituency of Mid-Bedfordshire will now take place on Thursday 19th October 2023.

The candidates are: Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative); Alistair Strathern (Labour); Emma Holland-Lindsay (Liberal Democrats); Cade Sibley (Green); Dave Holland (Reform UK); Alan Victor (True and Fair Party); and Gareth Mackey (Independent).

The constituency has been held by the Conservatives since 1929. At the last General Election in December 2019, the turnout in Mid-Bedfordshire was 73.7% out of an electorate of 87,795. Dorries won 38,692 votes, 59.8% of the vote, giving her a majority of 24,664 votes over the then Labour candidate, who got 14,028 votes (21.7%), while the Liberal Democrat candidate got 8,171 votes (12.6%).

The constituency is large and rural. The average age is 50; average employment is 64%; 76% of the adult population are homeowners; 92% of them are car owners; 51% of them are married; 90% of them are ethnic white; and 68% of them belong to socio-economic classes ABC1, with average gross household income of £52,397 p.a. (source: Electoral Calculus). 53% of them voted to leave the EU in the 2016 Referendum (same source).

The Liberal Democrats need a 23.6% swing to win the seat (source: Guardian, Monday 12th June 2023), so why are they so optimistic they can do so? They think, for one thing, they can attack the Labour candidate, Alistair Strathern, for his membership of, and activities with, Greenpeace (see Independent, Sunday 27th August 2023), apparently oblivious of the fact that some, at least, of their own members (including this one) are supporters of Greenpeace.

Generally speaking, their aim is to appeal to Conservative voters in the constituency, as they have done in similar ones, and as they aim to do in some 70 other so-called 'Blue Wall' seats at the forthcoming General Election. Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat Leader, the Liberal Democrat President, Dr Mark Pack, and the Party's Chief Executive, Mike Dixon, aren't interested in progressive voters, any more than Labour's Sir Keir Starmer is. While he is focused on Conservative voters in the so-called 'Red Wall', their focus is on winning Tory voters in the Blue one.

It is perfectly possible that Conservative voters in mid-Bedfordshire will switch to the Liberal Democrats on the 19th October. Yet others may vote for the Independent, Gareth Mackey, or the Reform UK candidate, Dave Holland. Others will stay at home, or spoil their ballot papers. It cannot be ruled out that some will switch their support directly from the Conservatives to Labour. Much will depend on which of the two opposition Parties is seen as having the best chance of beating the Tories.  

If the strategy is successful, it will only encourage Labour to move yet further to the Right, as if Labour hadn't moved far enough to the Right already. If it proves unsuccessful, and Labour win, it will confirm Sir Keir in his belief that he has been correct to position Labour in its current pro-Brexit, pro-austerity, anti-immigration, anti-green and pro-'law and order' stance. If the Conservatives retain the seat, Labour and the Liberal Democrats will indulge in a bout of futile, and scarcely productive, mutual recrimination.

In the meantime, pity the progressive voters of this country - left out in the cold by all except the Green Party, whose defence policy of seeking to withdraw this country from NATO renders them unelectable. It is enough to make anyone despair.