Electoral Support for the British Labour Party Since 1945.

The results for the British Labour Party at the General Elections held between 1945 and 2019 can be conveniently tabulated as follows: 

 

Table 1. 

YEAR. 

VOTE (%). 

SEATS (%). 

WIN/LOSE. 

1945 

47.7 

61.4 

W 

1950 

46.1 

50.4 

W 

1951 

48.8 

47.2 

L 

1955 

46.4 

44.0 

L 

1959 

43.8 

41.0 

L 

1964 

44.1 

50.3 

W 

1966 

48.0 

57.8 

W 

1970 

43.1 

45.7 

L 

1974 (1) 

37.2 

47.4 

W 

1974 (2) 

39.2 

50.2 

W 

1979 

36.9 

42.4 

L 

1983 

27.6 

32.2 

L 

1987 

30.8 

35.2 

L 

1992 

34.4 

41.6 

L 

1997 

43.2 

63.4 

W 

2001 

40.7 

62.5 

W 

2005 

35.2 

62.0 

W 

2010 

29.0 

39.7 

L 

2015 

30.4 

35.7 

L 

2017 

40.0 

40.3 

L 

2019 

32.1 

31.1 

L 

Source: Wikipedia.1 

We can see from the above that Labour have won nine General Elections since 1945, including that one, and lost the remaining twelve to the Conservatives. 

We can also see there is generally no relation between the percentage vote they receive and the percentage of seats they gain in the House of Commons. The nearest they have got to a proportional result was in 2017, when they received 40% of the vote, and got 40.3% of the seats. The 2019 result was slightly less proportional, and not in their favour: they got 32.1% of the votes, but only 31.1% of the seats. 

It is as well at this point to note that the supposedly electorally poisonous Jeremy Corbyn was not as electorally poisonous as Michael Foot in 1983 (Labour percentage vote 27.6%), and, in fact, did better than Neil Kinnock in 1987 (30.8%), Gordon Brown in 2010 (29%), Ed Miliband in 2015 (30.4%), and even did better, in 2017, than the supposedly invincible Tony Blair did in 2005 (40% compared to Blair’s 35.2%); and the 2017 figure was only 0.7% below what Blair achieved for Labour in 2001. 

The contrast between the 2001 and 2017 results in terms of percentage of seats is stark: 62.5% versus 40.3%. What a difference 0.7% of the vote makes! The Blair election victories all entailed absurdly exaggerated ratios of seats to votes: in 1997, the ratio was 1.47; in 2001, 1.54; and in 2005, it was 1.77. 

Table 2 sets out all the percentage seat/percentage vote ratios for Labour for the General Elections 1945-2019 inclusive: 

 

Table 2. 

YEAR. 

PERCENTAGE SEAT/VOTE RATIOS. 

1945 

1.29 

1950 

1.09 

1951 

0.97 

1955 

0.95 

1959 

0.94 

1964 

1.14 

1966 

1.20 

1970 

1.06 

1974(1) 

1.27 

1974(2) 

1.28 

1979 

1.15 

1983 

1.17 

1987 

1.14 

1992 

1.21 

1997 

1.47 

2001 

1.54 

2005 

1.77 

2010 

1.37 

2015 

1.17 

2017 

1.01 

2019 

0.97 

 

From this, we can see that Labour has been under-represented in the Commons in 1951, ’55 and ’59, and in 2019. At all other General Elections, however, it has been over-represented, particularly so in 1997, 2001, and especially in 2005. 

Even its loss in 2010 entailed a gross over-representation: there were 650 seats, and Labour won 258 of them, 39.7%, but only 29% of the vote, which means they should only have got 189 seats, a difference of 69 seats. On suspects Gordon Brown’s reputation would be very different now if he had led his Party to that result! 

Given the above, it is no real surprise that the current Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is so staunch a supporter of the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) Electoral System, in spite of his Party members’ enthusiasm for its replacement by Proportional Representation2. The average percentage seat/percentage vote ratio for Labour over the last twenty-one General Elections is 1.20. This is the same as it was in 1966, when Harold Wilson’s Labour Party won a landslide victory over Edward Heath’s Conservatives. If this ratio had applied in 2017, when Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour obtained 40% of the vote, they would have got 48% of the seats in the Commons, or 312 out of the 650, and he might, perhaps, have tried to form a minority government. Perhaps this did happen, in some alternate reality! 

    It is quite useless, although amusing, to speculate on such lines, but the important point is that the FPTP system is rationally, morally and politically indefensible, and a grievous offence against every principle of democracy. Starmer defends it out of naked self-interest; he is no friend of democracy, or of plurality, within his own Party, and is certainly no friend of democracy outside it.


1. Seat percentages calculated on the basis of information supplied. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections, plus entries for individual General Elections.

2. See: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/labour-party-conference-backs-proportional-representation/; https://labourlist.org/2021/07/exclusive-83-of-members-say-labour-should-back-proportional-representation/.


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