Wanting The Impossible.

The Guardian newspaper of 2nd May contained the following item: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/02/many-europeans-want-climate-action-but-less-so-if-it-changes-their-lifestyle-shows-poll.

So: a majority of Europeans want climate action, but not if it has an adverse impact on their consumerist, materialist lifestyles! To be fair to them, the same can almost certainly be said of North Americans, many East Asians and Australasians, if not all of them.

There are some climate scientists who seem to think that all we have to do to "solve" the climate emergency is end humanity's dependence on fossil fuels and achieve a complete transition of global energy production to renewable energy in as short a time span as possible.

Would that things were that simple! They are NOT! In 2021, world energy consumption was 176,431 TWh (Terawatt-hours) = 635.156 EJ (exajoules). Oil, coal, natural gas and traditional biomass made up 529.6644 EJ of that, which is 83.39% of the total. Nuclear contributed 25.3116 EJ, which is 3.985%; "modern biofuels" added 4.104 EJ, or 0.652%.

Renewable energy, of all kinds, thus made up the remaining 11.973%, or 76.047 EJ, of which the biggest contributor was hydro-electric power, with 40.2588 EJ, 52.939% of the renewables total, and 6.338% of world total energy production in 2021.

The source for these statistics is: https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix, and my own calculations based on the data available on that webpage.

If the global economy grows at an average rate of 1% p.a. over the twenty years from 2021-41, an idea which can scarcely be dismissed, see IMF, and demand for energy increases in line with that growth (which, again, is not an unreasonable assumption), then, in 2041, a year when the world's human population is expected to have risen to 9,257,745,535 (Source: Worldometers), energy demand will have risen 20% to 762.1872 EJ.

It should be clear that what we need, therefore, is not simply a "transition" from fossil fuels to renewables, but something very much more radical! We need a radical cut in energy demand, which means a radical reduction - not increase - in economic activity, consumption and production, and a reduction in the size of the global human population. (Fewer workers, fewer consumers, fewer mouths to feed, fewer bodies to clothe, house, water and educate, fewer people wanting to drive cars, fly in planes, take cruises, or want goods shipped from the other side of the planet.)

Of course, this will not suit capitalism, or its mode of production for profit, and will thus be rigorously opposed by every means at the disposal of the ruling élite, whose considerable power is consistently underestimated by climate scientists and activists.

In the end, it is my firm belief, nothing will be done by human effort. It will take the intervention of the Gaia self-defence mechanism, and it will not have the welfare of humans as its first - or even last - priority, but that of the biosphere, which it exists to protect and preserve. If that requires the extinction of our species - the most destructive species that has ever disgraced this planet with its presence on it - then so be it. It will be but a small price to pay for the survival of abundant life on Earth, and if that sentiment makes me an "eco-extremist", well, then, I am more than happy to plead guilty!

Note (added 14th May, 2023): global warming has now reached 1.25 °C, according to official figures (see: Science). This implies a climate sensitivity, given the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere, 423.94 ppm, recorded by the Scripps Institute on the 12th May, which is very much higher than at any time in the past 3.6 million years (see: Rae, et al, Figure 6, pp.627-628; Piacenzian), of 2.96229 °C.

What Rae, et al say on p.632 should be noted: 'The change in climate forcing due to anthropogenic carbon emissions is ∼10 times faster than even the most abrupt geological carbon release in the past 66 million years.'

A climate sensitivity of 2.96229 °C further implies that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C will be exceeded when the atmospheric CO2 level reaches 461.5 ppm (it will be 1.501469 °C). The remaining CO2 budget is thus 37.56 ppm, which is ~293.13 Gt (billion tonnes).

Global CO2 emissions were 36.8 Gt in 2022, according to the IEA, so, at that rate, and given no increase in annual emissions (we can hardly expect a decrease, given the current global political climate), this budget will be used up and the 1.5 °C target exceeded in just under 8 years, or by 2031, which is the median estimate of the RCP8.5 scenario, CarbonBrief inform us.