Labour's Hopes of Winning the Next General Election.

According to YouGov, in its most recent opinion poll (conducted 15-16th June 2022, and published on the 17th), if there was a General Election tomorrow - which, of course, there won't be - 39% of voters would vote Labour, 33% Conservative, 10% Liberal Democrat, 6% for the Green Party of England and Wales, 4% for the SNP, 4% for Reform UK, 1% for Plaid Cymru and 2% for other Parties, a total of 99%, presumably leaving 1% who didn't know or who wouldn't say.

As Andrew Rawnsley points out in today's (19th June 2022) Observer newspaper, Labour enjoyed a similar lead over the Conservatives in 2013, only to lose the subsequent General Election in 2015. The next General Election is, likewise, probably two years away.

Again, as Rawnsley argues, 'A charismatic leader with the capacity to generate excitement can win from the centre-left with a cautious programme, as Tony Blair demonstrated in 1997. A dramatic manifesto of social and economic change fronted by a self-effacing leader can also be a successful blend, as Attlee proved in 1945. What doesn't work is a radical project presented by an alarming leader, as Jeremy Corbyn confirmed in 2019. The combination of an uninspirational leader with a lacklustre prospectus doesn't look like a promising formula either.'

In Wakefield, where Labour is looking to secure a by-election victory next Thursday, the Observer's reporter Helen Pidd informs us that even those who are intending to vote Labour there aren't exactly fans of Labour leader Keir Starmer, describing him as 'awkward', 'a criticiser', 'not an action person', and 'not the right person for the Labour Party'.

According to Will Sadler, to win a bare overall majority of one seat at the next General Election in 2024, Labour needs to win 124 more seats than it won in 2019, on a swing of 10.52% - more than the 10.2% swing it got with its landslide victory over the Tories in 1997.

The psephological truths that dare not speak their name are that Labour must not lose any votes at all to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens, but at the same time, the LibDems must take votes from the Tories - and not just in constituencies where the LibDems win the seat, but in order for Labour to do so in Tory-Labour marginals. Labour only prospers when the Liberals - or the Liberal Democrats, these days - do well, because (a) Tory voters, when disaffected with the Conservative Party, either don't vote at all, or vote for A.N. Other Party, very often the LibDems, even when it makes no sense for Brexiteers to vote for a pro-European Party; and (b) because Labour ones, in those constituencies where Labour has no hope of winning, vote tactically for the LibDem candidate in order to oust the Tory.

In Scotland, Labour needs to take votes and seats off the SNP if it has to have any hope of forming a majority Government at Westminster. This is one of the reasons why I think Labour has no hope of doing so. I am not endowed with prophetic or psychic powers, and I may well be wrong, but I just can't see it happening. IpsosMori conducted an opinion poll in Scotland from 23rd-29th May 2022 relating to how people would vote in Scotland's UK Parliamentary constituencies, and the results were SNP, 44%, Labour, 23%, Liberal Democrats, 10%, Scottish Greens, 3%, Others, 3% - total, 83%, leaving 17% don't knows and wouldn't says.

At the last General Election, in December 2019, the SNP won 48 seats, 81.356% of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons, on 45% of the vote in Scotland. The Tories won 6 seats (10.169% of seats; 25.1% of votes), the Liberal Democrats won 4 (6.78% of seats; 9.5% of votes), and Labour won one seat (1.695% of seats; 18.6% of votes), total 59 seats. We can see from these figures just how far from proportional our first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system is, and it really is absolutely scandalous.

As is probably well known by now, the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, wants to hold a second Independence Referendum, 'with or without a Section 30 order' in October 2023. Section 30 is Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act, which enacts Schedule 5 of that Act.

Regardless of whether or not Sturgeon manages to get that past the courts, which will be extremely difficult (Lord Reid's UK Supreme Court has been a sad contrast with Lady Hale's, and has all-too-often sided with the Government, even with the clearest cut human rights cases) and in the teeth of objections, not only from the Tory Government but the Labour Opposition, she faces another major obstacle: the Scottish voters. The most recent opinion poll from YouGov on the subject of Scottish Independence, conducted 18th-23rd May 2022, published 14th June, shows 55% of Scots voting 'No' to 45% 'Yes', with strongest support for 'Yes' coming from the 16-24 age group, splitting 59% to 41% in favour of independence.

The gravamen of this is that it is highly unlikely that Scotland will be an independent sovereign nation State by the time of the next UK General Election, but it is also unlikely that Labour will be able to capitalise on any SNP discomfiture that might arise from that fact. Indeed, their opposition to independence, as in 2014, is rather more likely to hurt them. Scottish Unionists gravitated towards the Tories, as did Scottish supporters of Brexit. Most Scots didn't support Brexit, and many former Scottish Labour supporters and members were outraged by the sight of Labour politicians sharing platforms with longstanding Tory opponents in support of the Union. David Lammy is foolish indeed, as a Londoner, to be so staunch in his support of the Union between England and Scotland, and to pay so little regard to the opinions, especially of young people, in the latter country.

In Irish Gaelic, 'Sinn Fein' means 'ourselves alone'. Labour can ill-afford to carry on acting as if it can secure victory on its own, without needing support from any other political Party. That is manifestly untrue.

Labour will only be able to form a Government after the next General Election as the main Party in a Coalition. If it rules out going into Coalition with the SNP, for reasons not unconnected with what happened back in 2015, when David Cameron accused Ed Miliband of being prepared to do precisely that, and Miliband's repeated denials were not believed, then Labour will simply have to go into Coalition with the Liberal Democrats, no matter how distasteful some of the Left - both Corbynite and 'soft' - might find that to be. A so-called 'Confidence and Supply' arrangement will not be sufficient to ensure a secure, stable Government for a full Parliamentary term, which is what the British people will need and deserve. It would be helpful, therefore, if both Parties cooperated electorally in advance of, and during, the election, and had Party Manifestos that, whilst obviously not identical, were nevertheless not so far apart as to be incompatible.

I will flesh out ideas for what they might contain at a later date.